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Friday Thoughts: Decision making amidst the uncertainty

Andy Cox, Construction Director

This year will undoubtedly be remembered. The last few months have ensured that we’re living through a time which will change the course of our societies, planet, and future. We’re all faced with difficult decisions, and unfortunately we’re forced to navigate them without relevant history to draw on. It’s a uniquely challenging time, so not all of our choices will be illuminated as correct, but how can we make the best decisions possible? I’m trying to follow a simple formula of good mood + lowest stress + maximum working memory = most reasoned and informed decisions.

Daniel Goleman is an author and science journalist who made behavioural science interesting (to me, at least) and popularised an understanding of emotional intelligence. I recently revisited his analysis of the power of emotion, particularly in relation to decision making. My simplest explanation of his theory is this: sound decision making relies on maximum working memory. Working memory is the necessary capacity in the mind to complete a single task by collating all of the inputs from various sources. If you have enough working memory, your brain will call on emotional learning (rights and wrongs that we have learnt through trial and error) and perform rational processing of the relevant information to help you reach an informed decision.

If I calmly sit at my desk having just laughed through a call with my team, without any pressing personal drama or having recently engaged with the news, I’m appropriately placed to make the best choice possible. By maximising my working memory by being calm and happy, I’ve created a situation where my brain can estimate costs, market test exit values, evaluate analysis from partners on site, understand input from colleagues, and decide to proceed with the project.

If I race upstairs to get within range of the Wi-Fi to finish an unproductive group call, having narrowly prevented the dog from eating the chickens, furious that I’ve forgotten to take a quarantined neighbour their groceries, and irate about the reporting of PPE shortages in hospitals, I’m unlikely to be as capable. Stress, distraction, and low mood are partly to blame. For a less personal example, the poor decision making of Cantona’s Kung Fu kick at Selhurst Park can probably be attributed to the situation itself. Had he not been antagonised by both a red card and an (allegedly) gobby Palace fan, he would have had more working memory, greater access to emotional learning and hopefully chosen to walk away instead.

This is because working memory is inhibited by high octane emotions, such as anxiety, anger, stress, fear, and grief – all no doubt abundant across our households and businesses in these unnerving and challenging times. When emotion clouds our judgement, our intelligence is not affected yet it becomes harder to make reasoned or informed decisions. Unfortunately, it’s similar to the experience of trying to make the right decision having consumed a significant amount of alcohol.

Returning to my guiding formula, another key factor is good mood. Happier people can think flexibly and therefore unravel tricky conundrums. Not only do we make poorer choices when we’re stressed, we really do make better decisions when we’re feeling positive. Perhaps inspired by the viral tweet about a manager who entertained their staff by conducting their morning video call filtered to look like a talking potato, a contractor I’m working with this week launched into what could have been a rather mundane Teams meeting in a Stig of the Dump wig and a mask. Some sniggers on all corners of the screen, and everyone felt more connected as humans and also more relaxed. What followed was a concise, good natured and productive meeting with input from everyone to make some solid choices.

Though the above is an example of laughter greasing the wheels of an online meeting, as the initial novelty of Teams and Zoom (other video conferencing software is available) wears off, the inability of video conferencing to allow people to truly connect is starting to shine through. The best two-way decisions are made when people feel connected and comfortable. An architect friend and I were bemoaning the impossibility of conducting meetings over drinks or food during lockdown. It’s an important part of our industry for a reason, because it helps facilitate good decision making. We must therefore consciously try to recreate that nature of interaction however we can, whilst obviously maintaining social distancing. Perhaps for final Zoom calls of the day there’s a sweet spot between enough alcohol to feel a sociable connection with those you’re video-conferencing rather than taking for drinks, and not so much as to impair your working memory? That’s certainly an experiment I’m willing to lead.

These are volatile times, so high-octane emotions will be experienced by us all. We need to recognise this and counter the negative impact by connecting properly (probably in novel forms) with our colleagues and working partners in ways that make us feel positive, to increase our working memory. We should refer to our emotional learning, to make sure we’re drawing on positive experiences. Perhaps you hide the mascot in the background for your morning catch up video call for an early laugh. And, finally, it’s probably best to limit your decision making after a bottle and a half of Chateau Neuf de Pape to which Netflix series you’ll start next…

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